Serendipity35

A piece in The New Yorker (not exactly a technology magazine) titled "A Coder Considers the Waning Days of the Craft," set me thinking about what tech careers will be lost in the near and far future. Yes, artificial intelligence plays into this, but there are other factors too. Coding seems to be a likely candidate for being on the decline.

The author, James Somers, says that, "Coding has always felt to me like an endlessly deep and rich domain. Now I find myself wanting to write a eulogy for it." With his wife pregnant, he wonders that "...by the time that child can type, coding as a valuable skill might have faded from the world." 

It is an interesting read. Kind of a memoir of a coder.

Schools still teach coding. Coders are still working. The question is for for how long? Should a student in middle school think about it as a career? I used to tell my middle school students that a lot of them will go into careers that have titles that don't exist today. Who can predict?

Somers concludes:

"So maybe the thing to teach isn’t a skill but a spirit. I sometimes think of what I might have been doing had I been born in a different time. The coders of the agrarian days probably futzed with waterwheels and crop varietals; in the Newtonian era, they might have been obsessed with glass, and dyes, and timekeeping. I was reading an oral history of neural networks recently, and it struck me how many of the people interviewed—people born in and around the nineteen-thirties—had played with radios when they were little. Maybe the next cohort will spend their late nights in the guts of the A.I.s their parents once regarded as black boxes. I shouldn’t worry that the era of coding is winding down. Hacking is forever."

The future of coding is likely to be affected by all of these factors:

Artificial Intelligence and Automation: AI is already influencing coding through tools that assist developers in writing code, debugging, and optimizing algorithms. As AI continues to advance, it may take on more complex coding tasks, allowing developers to focus on higher-level design and problem-solving.

Low-Code/No-Code Development: The rise of low-code and no-code platforms is making it easier for individuals with limited programming experience to create applications. This trend could democratize software development, enabling a broader range of people to participate in creating digital solutions.

Increased Specialization: With the growing complexity of technology, developers are likely to become more specialized in particular domains or technologies. This could lead to a more segmented job market, with experts in areas like AI, cybersecurity, blockchain, etc.

Remote Collaboration and Distributed Development: Remote work has become more prevalent, and this trend is likely to continue. Tools and practices for collaborative and distributed development will become increasingly important.

Ethical Coding and Responsible AI: As technology plays a more central role in our lives, the ethical considerations of coding will become more critical. Developers will need to be mindful of the societal impact of their creations and consider ethical principles in their coding practices.

Continuous Learning: The pace of technological change is rapid, and developers will need to embrace a mindset of continuous learning. Staying updated with the latest tools, languages, and methodologies will be crucial.

Quantum Computing: While still in its early stages, quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize certain aspects of coding, particularly in solving complex problems that are currently intractable for classical computers.

Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR): As AR and VR technologies become more widespread, developers will likely be involved in creating immersive experiences and applications that leverage these technologies.

Cybersecurity Emphasis: With the increasing frequency and sophistication of cyber threats, coding with a focus on security will be paramount. Developers will need to incorporate secure coding practices and stay vigilant against emerging threats.

Environmental Sustainability: As concerns about climate change grow, there may be a greater emphasis on sustainable coding practices, including optimizing code for energy efficiency and reducing the environmental impact of data centers.

How do I know this? Because I asked a chatbot to tell me the future of coding.

On the same day, I saw three articles about artificial intelligence that made me view AI in different ways. One article was about how a chatbot powered by the Internet has passed exams at a U.S. law school after writing essays on law topics. Another article was about a company that is developing AI for warfare, but said they would only sell it to "democratic nations." The third article was about how AI makes the translation of difficult "dead" languages as well as interpreting medical tests faster and more accurately. 

Jonathan Choi, a professor at Minnesota University Law School, gave ChatGPT the same test faced by students. It had 95 multiple-choice questions and 12 essay questions. He reported that the bot scored a C+ overall.

In my own essay testing, I have found that the bot can produce in seconds a "C" paper or the start of a better paper. It is impressive but it is not like a really good student's work. So far.

But many of the AI bot stories in the media are about jobs that are likely to be replaced by AI. One popular media story at cbsnews.com/ supposes that computer programmers and people doing administrative work that they term "mid-level writing" can be handled by AI. That latter category would include work like writing emails, human resources letters, producing advertising copy, and drafting press releases. Of course, there is always the possibility that a worker doing that could be freed from those tasks and put onto higher level tasks and actually benefit from the AI.

I have seen positive and negative results from using AI in media work and law. Some of the negative examples seem to me to be when the user expects too much from AI at this stage in its development.

I don't think we know today what AI and bots will change in the world of work by next year, but it is certainly an area that requires concern by individuals and those who can affect the broader culture.

The term "productivity paranoia” was a new one for me when I encountered it in a conversation. I had to admit ignorance and ask the speaker for a definition. I was told that this is when some bosses fear that remote employees aren’t working enough despite data showing just the opposite. He said, "Yeah, they get the work done, but I suspect they are also walking the dog, running errands and watching their kids during what should be 'working hours'."

Defined by Microsoft as a scenario “where leaders fear that lost productivity is due to employees not working, even though hours worked, number of meetings, and other activity metrics have increased,” productivity paranoia is mostly associated with remote/virtual and hybrid workers.

Productivity paranoia is prevalent enough that some companies have invested in expensive technology to monitor their employees’ whereabouts and active time online. Tracking software, surveillance cameras, and GPS data are all possibilities and in one survey 97% of business leaders surveyed believed such software has increased workers’ productivity.

But couldn't this level of tracking bordering on "surveillance" have negative effects on workers and perhaps on their productivity?

Some articles say that those who are so monitored tend to be less loyal and more distrustful of their employers. It certainly is a more stressful work environment.

Another article says that "the average adult’s focused attention span is between 90 and 120 minutes and peaks at about 45 minutes" and that "taking a 10-minute break between a working interval of up to 90 minutes can help reset your attention span and keep cognitive momentum going."

For me, that is too long a span. As I am an almost entirely virtual worker now, I have found myself using the "Pomodoro method."

When you start a task (not a project, but a piece of it), set a timer and work on that task for 25 minutes. Then, take a short break (3-5 minutes). Start working on the task again for 25 minutes and repeat until it’s completed. Not only is that short break good for your brain and concentration but physically it is important for you to get out of a chair and move.

In the continuing stories of new AI chatbots, Grammarly, the typing assistant, will release GrammarlyGO. Their AI chatbot can write emails, edit documents, or come up with new ideas.

Unlike their popular proofreading tool, Grammarly (which I regularly use), GrammarlyGO will go beyond pointing out your grammar mistakes because it will "learn your writing style" and write content as you might have on your own. That is the concept.

Grammarly argues this is a way to stop bad writing from "draining business productivity and performance" and that it will eventually generate "highly relevant text with an understanding of personal voice and brand style, context, and intent—saving people and businesses time while accounting for their unique needs."

It will work as their earlier tool within email, social media, and word-processing applications and websites.

Available across the free (in select markets) and paid professional, education, and developer tiers, GrammarlyGO is on by default for individual users, who can toggle it off in their settings. Business and education administrators, meanwhile, must opt-in for their organizations.

MORE  https://www.grammarly.com/blog/grammarlygo-augmented-intelligence/

Robots, yes - but cobots? The term 'cobot' is a portmanteau of  "collaborative robot", a robot designed for human interaction. Traditional industrial robots would typically be isolated from humans for safety reasons. Cobots operate alongside people within the same space.

Collaborative robots are promoted as being cost-effective, safe, and flexible to deploy. Cobots designed to share a workspace with humans make automation easier in a variety of applications, according to Universal Robots.

Robots that will be able to exist next to people in our homes, factories, and offices and navigate safely around us is seen as possible in the next 5-10 years.

Similar to industrial robots, cobots can automate manual processes but can also do jobs that humans don't want to do. What kind of jobs does that include? Tasks that are repetitive, tedious, dirty, or dangerous. So, injury reduction is one of the benefits of working with cobots. Strenuous lifting and repetitive movement are common workplace injuries.

Not to insult the humans reading this, but robots and cobots offer far higher levels of consistency than humans. That is a key benefit in tasks that require a high degree of precision.

The cobots we are using emerge tend to be more compact and lightweight than conventional robots. They are also more user-friendly and require fewer or no engineers or programmers to set up ad monitor operations.

MORE at euronews.com/next/...

I have been seeing the abbreviation "WFH" used more lately. It stands for “work from home” which is work being done remotely, instead of at an office. Although many organizations transitioned their employees from the office to WFH during the Coronavirus pandemic, the WFH idea has not gone away. Both workers and employers saw advantages to remote work.

In my reading, I have come across studies that show productivity while working remotely from home is as good or better than working in an office setting. One article states that those who work from home spend 10 minutes less a day being unproductive, work one more day a week, and are 47% more productive.

Surveys of workers seem to indicate that from that point of view, the plusses to WFH include: 

• the ability to flex work hours (but not decrease them in most cases)
• gives a better work-life balance 
• eliminates the cost and inconvenience of a commute 
• no office politics 
• less need for childcare (though not every parent can care for children and work)

In these same surveys, it seems that many of the minuses fall into two levels. Workers either feel something is missing entirely, partially or just not as effective as when they are in the office.

• less or less effective or no collaboration
• less or less effective or no mentoring
• Let's face it, despite office politics, the office is also a part of many workers' social life. I met my wife at work and many of my friends too. Online TGIF happy hour just isn't the same.
• It is harder to understand the "corporate culture" and feel like part of an organization when you are at a distance. Some people feel "disconnected" from their employer and fellow employees.

These are broad answers and every job has its own unique plusses and minuses. A salesperson who is used to making in-person contact with customers and potential customers might actually miss commuting to meet them and might find that sales are better in a face-to-face meeting. Not everyone has the equipment they need to do their work from home. The people we labeled as 'essential workers" during the pandemic's worst days probably have no option to work from home now.

According to the 2021 State of Remote Work Report from Owl Labs, 2021 was the year the world stayed remote, and 90% of the 2,050 full-time remote workers surveyed said they were as productive or more productive working remotely, compared to when they toiled in the office. A Forbes article is headlined "Remote Work Is Here To Stay And Will Increase Into 2023, Experts Say."  

In education, a NY Times article is similarly headlined "Online Schools Are Here to Stay, Even After the Pandemic," though the sub-heading is "Some families have come to prefer stand-alone virtual schools and districts are rushing to accommodate them — though questions about remote learning persist." I know colleges that are still offering more online sections than before the pandemic. Partially, it may be because the investment was made in the technology so "let's get some use out of it." Students - and more importantly, faculty - who had not worked online may have found it to be better than they expected with some of the same plusses are above.

The push for K-12 schools to go back to "normal" was much greater than the push for higher education. Though K-12 school districts also made the shift with technology, it might only be used now for special situations (weather-related closings, absent students, parent content, professional development etc.)

To make a K-20 generalization, there is greater hybridization of earning now than there was pre-pandemic. That may also be true in the workplace.