Serendipity35 - Social Media

Nate Silver On Why Social Media Has Become a Freak Show

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:35:00 +0000

Nate Silver is an American statistician, author, and professional poker player who transformed the landscape of political and sports analysis through probabilistic modeling. Silver first gained prominence in the early 2000s by developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. He soon applied these "sabermetric" techniques to politics, founding the influential site FiveThirtyEight in 2008. He famously cemented his reputation by correctly predicting the presidential winner in 49 states that year. Following his departure from ABC News in 2023, Silver returned to his independent roots by launching the Silver Bulletin on Substack. As of 2026, he remains a central figure in election forecasting, providing real-time data modeling for the current midterm cycle. His work has shifted toward a broader exploration of risk; his 2024 book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, examines the high-stakes world of professional gambling, crypto, and venture capital.

Here is a recent post of his about social media, focusing on the evolution (devolution) of Twitter to X.

The content that gets “engagement” on Twitter is mostly complete crap

And yet, while Facebook is now almost completely irrelevant to the political discourse, that isn’t quite true for Twitter. Google search traffic in the U.S. for the precise term “twitter” is down quite a lot, but that’s not fair to X because the platform now has a new name. Broader traffic for search topics related to Twitter/X is also down, by more than half relative to the peak in late 2012. But the recent decline has been more gradual: about 20 percent as compared to two years ago. That seems to track with other third-party data showing a slow-but-steady decline in Twitter engagement, though nobody can be quite sure since X is no longer a public company.

It’s not hard to notice that Twitter has become extremely right-leaning. But I’d argue there’s an equally important trend: the top accounts are of incredibly low quality. Elon, with the algorithmic boost he built in for himself, is at the eye of the storm, of course. But “Catturd” literally gets far more engagement than the New York Times, for instance.

Here's the graphic Silver made using Claude AI to show what's hot on X this year.

Twitter accounts with the most engagement so far in 2026

Unplugging From Online Addiction

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 08:24:00 +0000

This week, you probably saw headlines like "Meta and YouTube designed addictive products that harmed young people," as a jury in Los Angeles awarded the plaintiff damages of $6 million, with Meta to pay 70% and YouTube the remainder

We are all plugged in to the electronic web around us that is far larger than the World Wide Web. That feeling of being unable to unplug is incredibly common and results from a powerful combination of psychological triggers, clever product design, and the essential role technology plays in modern life. "Addiction" is a strong word in this context, but it is the operative word in these kinds of cases.

Don't feel like you are "weak" or lack willpower if you find it difficult to disconnect. These systems are scientifically optimized to maximize your engagement. The core reason for compulsive checking is a chemical reaction in your brain centered on dopamine, the neurotransmitter associated with pleasure, motivation, and reward-seeking.

Social media and even email platforms use the same psychological principle that makes slot machines and video games addictive. You don't know when the next "win" will appear. That could be a "like," a validating comment, an alert, or an email from someone "important." Are any of these really important? Maybe - and that possibility mixed in with that famous Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is powerful. It compels you to keep checking.

Designers know they need apps and websites to be addictive. I can list some of these techniques, and you can take them as things to be conscious of and avoid. You could also use it as a designer to create an addictive app or website. These things are intentionally engineered as features that make it easy to lose track of time and difficult to stop.

One of those techniques is using infinite scroll, which eliminates natural stopping cues (like the bottom of a page). The content just keeps loading, encouraging endless consumption. |

Push notifications hijack your attention and create a sense of immediate urgency or curiosity, pulling you back into the app regardless of what you were doing.

Autoplay on videos and content streams automatically transitions you to the next item, removing the moment you would have had to make a conscious choice to continue or stop.

As I said earlier, many techniques used in gaming are used in the gamification of other apps. You might not think of things like streaks, badges or LinkedIn profile completeness bars create a feeling of required daily attendance to avoid losing progress or status.

Most of these are psychological traps. FoMO and the social validation of likes and shares, and positive comments tap directly into our fundamental need for social acceptance and validation.

Do you ever find yourself waiting in line, standing on the train, or during a commercial break, checking your phone? That instant, low-effort stimulation. is a form of addiction.

It's true that technology is no longer optional. We need it for much of our communication and work. We crave constant connectivity. Some jobs demand constant email and instant messaging availability. The lines between work and personal time have been blurring for at least two decades. We need directions (maps), banking, tickets, appointments, and emergency communications from our digital devices. That new reality seems to make a complete disconnect feel irresponsible, unsafe, and maybe impossible.

But I don't think it is hopeless. The solution is not to throw away devices or turn off your cell service and WiFi or have more willpower. Advice from "experts" is to create friction between yourself and the addictive features. Only allow notifications for direct calls, texts, and genuinely critical applications. Designate specific times (like the first hour of the day, mealtimes, or the hour before bed) and locations (the bedroom, the dinner table) as completely device-free. Remove the most addictive social media apps from your phone, or move them off the home screen and turn off those badges and notification sounds that remind you that there are 3 new somethings on Instagram.

Elgg

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 12:05:00 +0000

Logo Elgg.org, source

I wrote here about the open-source software called Elgg almost two decades ago. (Not to be confused with elgg.net, a social networking site for educators back around 2006, which no longer exists.) Elgg is open-source social networking software that provides individuals and organizations with the components needed to create an online social environment. It offers blogging, microblogging, file sharing, networking, groups, and a number of other features. It was also the first platform to bring ideas from commercial social networking platforms to educational software. It was founded in 2004 by Ben Werdmuller and Dave Tosh

I view those older posts and many of the ones on this site that date back almost 20 years as historical documents of a sort. I'm sometimes tempted to update them, and I do sometimes fix a broken image or a proofreading mistake, but they may have some value as documentation of another time in edtech history.

How many of the alternatives to commercial course management systems from my 2006 list still exist? I looked up Elgg to see if it was still in use. The Wikipedia entry shows an impressive list of sites that are using Elgg. The list includes Oxfam, the Australian, Dutch, Canadian, and British Governments, New Zealand Ministry of Education, State of Ohio, USA, The World Bank, UNESCO, and the United Nations Development Programme.

Here is one of those old posts - now just historic.

Elgg is software for building a personal learning landscape. The software is from the United Kingdom. I first saw it mentioned on the Moodle site and thought it was a kind of plug-in to Moodle. It uses blogs, e-portfolios, shared files, RSS feeds, and other "social networking" tools. I thought it had been designed for educational use, but looking through the users, it has a good number of general users.

Their site has a demo community set up, and their resources/links are set up using an embedded wiki. You can create a free user account and get space for a blog, RSS feeds, an aggregator to read other people's content, and space to store your own resources (files). As a guest, you can still view items made public in user profiles - here's mine

Since their new release is version 0.601, this is obviously new beta software. So does this replace a Moodle or Blackboard, or supplement it, or serve a different purpose?

My collaborator here, Tim Kellers, installed the Elgg software here at NJIT, so drop by and register if you want to try it out. I also suggest you go to the elgg.net site and create an account so you can become part of that educator community. I have made some interesting contacts outside the United States from there. Right now, I am just having this blog's content mirrored to my Elgg blog account by using an RSS feed (yeah, there are some formatting & image issues doing that).

http://webapps.saugus.k12.ca.us/community - California's Saugus Unified School District uses it, and as you can see, it is a secure environment with user id and password access. However, take a look at their user introduction pdf document. It's a nice 9-page intro with screenshots. Another K12 district getting ahead of the colleges!

Ready for the test question? Elgg is to Elgg.net as ______ is to Wikipedia. (Answer: Mediawiki)

Well, to deal with that confusion (or further confuse you), elgg.net will now be edufilter.org.

Here's an email that went out to users from the Elgg folks:

Changes are afoot at Elgg.net!
Actually, you've been accustomed to change throughout the existence of the site since we started it in 2004. New features pop up all the time, and we think you'll be pleased to hear that this isn't going to stop soon.
However, we're going to change the name. Next Wednesday, Elgg.net will become Edufilter.org.
This is because, for a lot of people, Elgg.net is Elgg. Granted, it's a confusing name. But Elgg is a free, open source, white label social networking framework that anyone can install on their own servers. Want it running at your institution? Point your elearning folks at http://elgg.org.
Elgg.net, meanwhile, is a social network for education - and therefore, we think Edufilter is probably a better name.
You've probably got concerns, so let's deal with the most important:
#1: We're not going to break any of your links. While the front page of Elgg.net will forward to the main Elgg software homepage, anyone visiting elgg.net/your-username will still get to your page. We have no plans to end this, so if your address is printed on materials, don't worry. Everything's fine.
#2: The site will not be discontinued. It continues to be our flagship installation.
Furthermore, making the site overtly educational means we can give you more directed content and features. Sponsorship opportunities are available; if you'd like to promote your product or service available to some of the world's leading lights in elearning, let us know.
Best regards,
The Curverider team

A Few Other Posts About This

https://serendipity35.net/index.php?/archives/489-Putting-All-Your-Educational-Eggs-In-One-Basket.html

https://serendipity35.net/index.php?/archives/83-More-of-the-Competition-in-the-CMS-Market.html

https://serendipity35.net/index.php?/archives/265-A-directory-to-Web-2.0-Companies.html

Typepad Is No Longer

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 12:55:00 +0000

Typepad was a blogging service that was launched back in 2003. I used it for years as a fast blogging platform. I was less and less serious about using it as I moved to other, more robust platforms such as Wordpress, Blogger and Serendipity (used for this blog) emerged.

I don't think I posted anything there in the past year, but I happened to click the bookmark for my site this past week and found that the URL was replaced with networksolutions.com/typepad, which told me that "Typepad has closed—your next chapter starts here. Your previous provider has shut down, but your online presence can still thrive. Partner with Network Solutions to keep your domain, website, and brand moving forward. Unfortunately, you can no longer access your files, and there will be no extensions beyond the end of service date. All of the blog data will be purged."

The platform had been through some changes over the years and stopped accepting new signups at the end of 2020. In August 2025, Typepad announced it would be shutting down on September 30, 2025.

I'm not very upset about the shutdown because I wasn't really using it. I have 10 other blogs that I post to. (Yes, that is ridiculous. Take a look here.) What does upset me about it shutting down is that it's a reminder that all the content you're posting online (particularly on a platform you don't own and control) can go away quickly - "purged" as in the case of Typepad.
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Typepad's shutdown can be attributed to several factors that often affect online services. While there isn't a single definitive cause, here are some probable reasons.

Changing market landscape: The blogging and website hosting space has become increasingly competitive, with many platforms offering free or low-cost services. This shift likely put pressure on Typepad to adapt and stay attractive to users.

Ownership changes: Typepad changed hands over the years, moving from its original owners to Endurance International Group and then to SAY Media. Such transitions can sometimes lead to changes in strategy or resources allocated to the platform.

Technical issues and support challenges: Some users reported issues with the platform, including difficulties with importing content to other services and concerns about support responsiveness. These challenges might have contributed to a decline in user satisfaction.

Business model sustainability: Like many businesses, Typepad needed to balance its offerings with revenue. As the market evolved, maintaining a viable business model might have become increasingly difficult.

For context, similar challenges are not unique to Typepad. Many businesses face hurdles such as adapting to market changes, managing growth, and ensuring customer satisfaction. A broader look at common reasons for business failures includes factors like lack of market demand, insufficient capital, and inability to pivot in response to changing conditions.

The Australia Social Media Ban

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 21:29:00 +0000

Australia implemented a world-first nationwide ban on social media access for children under 16, effective December 10, 2025. The law, passed in November 2024 under the Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Bill, requires major platforms to take "reasonable steps" to prevent users under 16 from creating or maintaining accounts. This includes age verification methods like behavioral inference (analyzing online activity), facial age estimation (e.g., via selfies), ID uploads, or linking bank details.

Millions of accounts are expected to be affected as companies, such as TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, YouTube, and X, face fines of up to $33M for serious or repeated noncompliance. The law places responsibility on companies rather than families, and platforms must demonstrate that they have taken “reasonable steps,” such as implementing age checks and removing suspected underage accounts.

The measure is cast as a child-protection and mental health safeguard, citing research showing 96% of 10- to 15-year-olds use social media, with many encountering harmful content, grooming, or cyberbullying. Critics say the law is difficult to enforce. It may even push teens onto harder-to-monitor platforms. Another criticism is that it may pose privacy risks.

Read the research from Australia used to create this ban
https://www.esafety.gov.au/research/the-online-experiences-of-children-in-australia/report-digital-use-and-risk-among-children-aged-10-to-15

Other countries have taken similar steps, such as strict youth modes or time limits.
https://studyinternational.com/news/countries-social-media-ban-children/

Australia’s Nationwide Ban on Social Media for Children Under 16

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Fri, 17 Oct 2025 14:54:00 +0000

Australia’s nationwide ban on social media use for children under 16 takes effect today, making it the first country to prohibit underage users from major platforms outright. It is a noble and probably necessary thing, but I cannot believe it is doable.

Millions of accounts are expected to be affected as companies, such as TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, YouTube, and X, face fines of up to $33M for serious or repeated noncompliance. However, the law places responsibility on companies rather than families, and platforms must demonstrate that they have taken “reasonable steps," such as implementing age checks and removing suspected underage accounts.

I suspect the companies will say these things have already been put in place. (Have you noticed the increase in ads on TV and in your Instagram feed about their teen accounts?) And how will Australia monitor this? Critics say the law is difficult to enforce. It might push teens onto harder-to-monitor platforms. Enforcement may pose privacy risks. We know that many children who create accounts have already lied about their age. Can that be determined?

The research shows 96% of children aged 10 to 15 had used social media, and a majority had used a communication platform to chat, message, call, or video call others (94%). Anecdotally. many of them report encountering harmful content, grooming, or cyberbullying.

Australia may have been the first country to pass a social media ban bill to stop children under 16 from accessing the platforms, but 7 other countries have taken similar steps, such as strict youth modes or time limits.
https://studyinternational.com/news/countries-social-media-ban-children/
Read/download the Australian research report
https://www.esafety.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-07/Digital-use-and-risk-Online-platform-engagement-10-to-15.pdf

You've Been Facebooked: Social Media in 2006

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 11:07:00 +0000

Looking back at Facebook in 2006 for your consideration of where it is today.

Mark Zuckerberg was testifying recently in a landmark antitrust trial brought by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) against Meta. The FTC alleges that Meta, through its acquisitions of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014, has unfairly maintained a monopoly in the social networking market. The government claims these purchases were part of a strategy to "neutralize" competitors and stifle innovation

I wrote a post here in 2006 when Facebook first became available to the general public. Initially, it was launched in 2004 as "TheFacebook" and was limited to Harvard students. Over time, it expanded to other universities and eventually opened up to anyone aged 13 or older with a valid email address in 2006. I have repurposed that old post here in an updated version.

I jumped in right away. I was at a university, and I immediately thought this would be big with students, and that the faculty needed to know what it was about. The faculty was not interested in the presentations I offered. I did one on "social media" and where it was headed.

Facebook wasn't the first or the only player.

MySpace was very popular at the time, and it was the go-to platform for music lovers and personal profiles.
YouTube launched in 2005 and was gaining traction as the place for video sharing.
Flickr was the favorite for photo sharing and had amateur as well as professional photographers.
LinkedIn: Focused on professional networking, it was already carving out its niche.
Friendster's popularity was waning, but it was still a notable player in the early social media scene.
The lesser-known Orkut gained popularity in Brazil and India but not in the U.S. It was Google's failed attempt at social networking.

In 2004, the soon-to-be social networking giant was a baby called "The Facebook.” The19-year-old co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg needed to explain the concept behind the site,. Check out this explanation he did in his first-ever television interview with CNBC on April 28, 2004.

In my 2006 post, I wrote about the American fascination with turning nouns into verbs, so for a time people were saying that you could be "facebooked." That verb meant the action of 1) looking someone up on Facebook or 2) asking someone to be your friend on Facebook.
"I Facebooked that girl I met at the party last night, and she Facebooked me this morning, so now we're friends."

You could also "poke" someone which was a suggestive term for a kind of gentle message without content. You could send an email-style message to them or leave a message on their "wall."

It is interesting to read what Zuckerberg said 19 years ago about the website and consider where it is today. The definition of Facebook, according to founder Mark Zuckerberg in 2006:

"The idea for the website was motivated by a social need at Harvard to be able to identify people in other residential houses. Harvard is a fairly unfriendly place. While each residential house listed directories of their residents, I wanted one online directory where all students could be listed. And I've always enjoyed building things and puttering around with computer code, so I sat down and in about a week I had produced the basic workings of the site.
We had a launch plan to enter into other colleges based on where friends would be most likely to overlap, so the site spread organically based upon that model, and now we operate on a broad spectrum of campuses. It doesn't make sense to exclude anybody or any college from the resources that Facebook offers. This is a product that should be fun and useful for all college students.
We don't view the site as an online community. We bill it as a directory that is reinforcing a physical community. What exists on the site is a mirror image of what exists in real life.
To a certain extent, the website is unfortunate because it oversimplifies things. Everybody's concept of having a friend is different. It can definitely blur the relationships that exist between people. But in the end, I think that thefacebook can only reinforce preexisting communities. We think we have been particularly successful in strengthening those relationships that exist between people who are only â€œfringe friends.
It's not unusual for us to receive an email from somebody saying, "I spend all of my time on your website and now I have less of a social life than I had before." We would much rather have people meet people through the website and go out and party than stay at home on a Friday night reading other people's profiles. And it's surprising, but we have actually received far less complaints about stalking than we otherwise would have expected."

Here are some of my 2006 stats about Facebook:
- 12 million users (*MySpace has 54 million users)
- 300 million page views per 24-hour period - page views surpasses Google
- Facebook comes in seventh in terms of overall traffic on the entire Web
- 70% of users use the site every day
- 85% use it once a week
- 93% visit monthly
- The site makes more than a million dollars a month in ad revenue
- Since its start, a high school edition and a photo upload and tagging option were added

I joined Facebook mostly to see what it was all about. I knew that my college-aged sons both used it. (It seemed like my younger son - a freshman in 2005 - met a hundred people at his school through Facebook during orientation and the first weeks, plus all his high school friends at other schools that were added to his friends list, and then their friends who added him.

I felt pretty sad at first because I had no one to add to my list. I started with my sons, who "allowed" me to be their friend list (you do have to approve someone's request to be added), though they made me promise never to put something on their wall. Facebook was not really for mom and dad.

Because early on, parents and adults played no real role in Facebook (though alumni can create accounts for their alma mater) I didn't expect to find any of my classmates there. Faculty could have a profile at their school, but that was rare in 2006.

What really bothered me at first was that my profile said, "You have 0 friends at NJIT." I planned to do a presentation to faculty at NJIT about this new website, so I had to Facebook a few students that I thought would say yes to my request. Then I started searching students I had taught in my former K-12 days. Found a few and sent them a message. And that led to a few of their classmates finding me. Social networking...

When I did my first presentation, I had 37 friends - which by Facebook standards was pretty pathetic. It for younger readers to imagine these early social media ( aterm no one was using) times. I only had 55 people on my AOL AIM buddy list, so 37 seems was about right.

When I showed the site to faculty and academic and non-academic friends, the most common comments were:
Yeah. So what's the point? [Remember, most of my friends are old.]
Why does everyone seem to have an alcoholic drink in their hand in all the pictures? [sad but true]
Many more females than males on Facebook. [True]
Wouldn't it scare you if you had a daughter and she was posting pictures, her dorm room #, email address and other info online? [Yes}
Doesn't it scare you that your sons are doing that? [To a degree - but maintaining a common double standard, not as much.]
What about identity theft? [As with any sitaution where you reveal personal information, facebook could open you up to id theft by giving someone enough information to attempt to create a fake account.]

One comment I heard did turn out to be true later that year. "Don't you think employers will check this kind of site when screening clients?" I had heard that but I doubted it would be widespread. It turned out that employers could get access through employees who were students, faculty and alumni from an applicant's school. I saw a posting that said "Monster.com [a very popular jobs site in 2006] is who you portray you are, but Facebook is who you really are."

In the fall of 2005, North Carolina State University disciplined several students for underage drinking after a resident assistant found party photos of them on Facebook. A few days after students rushed the football field following a Penn State win over Ohio State, campus police found pictures of the incident containing identifiable students on Facebook. Northern Kentucky and the University of Kentucky both have disciplined students they had seen drinking in pictures posted on Facebook. Campus police at George Washington University use Facebook to find underage drinkers. Employers and the career center at the University of Kansas use Facebook to evaluate students being considered for KU jobs.

People commented that "You can't seriously think that these people actually have 345 "friends?" Well, not the way we may have once defined "friend." I'm pretty confident that someone who has 345 friends on Facebook realizes that they are not friends in the same way as their 6 close friends that they see face-to-face regularly.

In 2006, I Facebooked Mark Zuckerberg. He had 323 friends already, but hey, you can always use another friend, right?

Going Viral

ronkowitz@gmail.com (Kenneth Ronkowitz) — Fri, 22 Aug 2025 16:04:00 +0000

Reading Amber Mac's newsletter this week, I saw a connection with something I was writing on one of my other blogs about this idea of having content "go viral." It sounds like a great thing. But does it come at a cost?

Yes, it's tempting to jump on TikTok trends and participate in the bite-size-ification of social, but it's also possible to produce a steady and consistent flow of valuable, high-quality content that never goes viral. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to see our video views rise, but it's not essential that we trend. I think we all know how that game works. Say something controversial or do something outrageous, and the algorithms will thank you for it.

In my opinion, that spike in attention might be a win, but it's a short-term win. In other words, not everyone should go viral. If that's what you're chasing, it could be a soul-crushing experience where you lose yourself and your authentic community along the way. - Amber Mac

Bloggers often want their posts to go "viral." The word “viral” made a leap from medical terminology to broader cultural usage in the late 20th century, particularly in the context of marketing and media. I assumed that it was social media that moved the term from medical usage, but it is actually a bit earlier than the explosion of social media. In 1989, The Oxford English Dictionary cites the earliest use of “viral” to describe the rapid spread of information, marking its first known non-medical usage.

The term gained traction in marketing in 1999, especially “viral marketing,” which described campaigns that spread quickly and organically—much like a virus. In the early 2000s, phrases like “going viral” and “viral video” emerged. and by 2004, “going viral” was used to describe content that rapidly gained popularity online. From 2009 onward, viral became mainstream, fueled by the rise of social media platforms and shareable content.

It is a good and powerful metaphor. Like a biological virus, digital content can replicate and spread uncontrollably. That semantic link made “viral” the perfect word to describe the phenomenon of explosive online popularity.

I don't think I have had a "viral post," though I have had some posts that seem to get more views over the years than most of mine. But "viral" is when the surge of views hits all at once.

Can you push a post into the land of viral? I don't think so, but you can find articles about "how to," like 21 key elements for viral blog posts or explore 32 proven tactics to boost your chances - but there are certainly no guarantees.

Those kinds of articles will suggest things to do like these: Know your audience and tailor your tone, topic, and style to what resonates with them. Tap into trending issues, emotional stories, or highly useful how-tos. Use eye-catching images. Share across platforms with tailored captions and hashtags. Use analytics to see what’s getting attention and tweak accordingly. All of those make sense, and I tend to employ them most of the time.

Some suggestions probably do increase your chances of viality, but go against my own blogging philosophy: Make it skimmable. Short paragraphs, bullet points, and bolded key phrases. Engage influencers. Reach out to people with large followings who might share your post. I don't do email marketing, other than if someone decides to follow my blog via email notifications.

"Viral" is hardly the only medical term that is now in broader usage. If you're curious about that, check out this other blog.